Recession panic looks to be ebbing away as far as the UK grocery market is concerned, according to the latest TNS Worldpanel market share figures.
But TNS Worldpanel director Ed Garner said the figures – which cover the 12 weeks to 6 September 2009 – did not imply that all sectors of the High Street would instantly return to pre-recession growth.
He said: “Food remains a manageable proportion of most household budgets by historical standards and, it could be argued, the grocery sector suffered from an over-reaction at the end of 2008 when Aldi posted year-on-year sales growth of 26% and Waitrose saw a sales decline.
“Fast-forward to today and Waitrose is the top performer with a growth rate of 11.2% – the highest since August 2006. Admittedly this will be boosted by the stores acquired from the Co-operative-Somerfield combination, but it is hardly a sign of a rush downmarket.
“Growth for Aldi and Lidl continues to fall back from 2008 levels, with Aldi growing ahead of the market at 8% and Lidl just keeping pace with the market growth of 5.2%.
Asda, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons all continue to grow share and have added 1.1 share points between them. It is too early yet to assess the impact of Tesco’s Clubcard 2 within this 12-week period and the Tesco share continues [to be] under pressure.
“It is worth noting that there is challenge to the sector coming from the falling grocery inflation rate – this will restrict value growth for the industry going forward.”
Grocery price inflation has fallen further since last month and the figure for the 12 weeks ending 6 September 2009 is 4.3%. This is the sixth successive drop in grocery price inflation. Said Garner: “As always, it is also important to remember that the drop in inflation does not mean that prices are falling, merely rising more slowly.”
Market shares
(figure in brackets shows sales growth vs same period last year)
Tesco 30.9% (4.6%)
Asda 17.4% (7.8%)
Sainsbury’s 15.8% (7%)
Morrisons 11.3% (9.3%)
Total co-ops 8.2% (-6.6%)
Co-operative 5.5% (6.2%)
Somerfield 2.7% (-25.2%)
Waitrose 3.9% (11.2%)
Iceland 1.7% (6.8%)
Aldi 3% (8%)
Lidl 2.3% (5.2%)
Netto 0.8% (1.9%)
Farm Foods 0.6% (9.6%)
Total independents 2.2% (-7.9%)
Symbols 0.8% (-8.4%)
Other independents 1.4% (-7.5%)
